The UP Diliman campus political landscape is constantly changing given how most colleges have switched allegiances between the three main political parties, an analysis of the past student council elections has shown.
The Collegian has analyzed the past 11 election cycles to obtain the partisanship trends of each college using a three-year rolling average of the political parties’ base votes. The candidate who has received the least number of votes for their slate was the basis of their party’s base vote share.
In 2021, for instance, Student Alliance for the Advancement of Democratic Rights in UP’s (STAND UP) base vote share was obtained from Albert Obis as he was the last-ranking red candidate, while UP Alyansa ng mga Mag-aaral para sa Panlipunang Katwiran at Kaunlaran’s (UP Alyansa) base vote came from Pete Adriel Laput.
Based on election data, the College of Education (Eduk) and School of Statistics (Stat) went from being STAND UP strongholds to consistently voting for UP Alyansa. In less than six years, UP Alyansa’s base vote share in Eduk and Stat doubled while STAND UP’s share plummeted below 50 percent (see sidebar 1).
However, seizing Eduk and Stat may not be enough for UP Alyansa to gain control of the University Student Council (USC) as the two colleges only make up around 6 percent of the electorate. STAND UP has also been showing signs of resurgence in Eduk and Stat during the past three elections–a similar trend with other UP Alyansa turfs.
In the College of Social Sciences and Philosophy (CSSP), STAND UP’s base vote share has been steadily increasing since 2018 until they finally overtook UP Alyansa last year (see sidebar 2). The shift is even more notable at the School of Economics where UP Alyansa’s peak 74-point advantage over STAND UP in 2014 shrunk to a measly 3-percentage points last year.
While UP Alyansa’s vote share has eroded in some of their strongholds, STAND UP has maintained their strong performance in their bases. Since 2010, the base vote share of STAND never went down below 50 percent in the College of Arts and Letters, College of Mass Communication, and College of Social Work and Community Development. These colleges make up about a tenth of the total voters.
Aside from keeping their strongholds, STAND UP also made gains in the colleges that have consistently voted for the Nagkakaisang Iskolar para sa Pamantasan at Sambayanan (KAISA UP). Last year, STAND UP snatched KAISA UP’s strongholds Asian Institute of Tourism (AIT) and the National College of Public Governance (NCPAG) (see sidebar 3).
While STAND UP’s base vote share improved in AIT and NCPAG by over 10 points, UP Alyansa’s share in the two colleges has remained virtually unchanged despite the absence of KAISA UP last year. This may mean that most of KAISA UP’s voters have decided to lend their votes to STAND UP rather than to UP Alyansa.
A similar trend happened in the College of Engineering (Engg) and College of Science (CS), which have the largest share of the electorate. From 2010 to 2017, no party had a significant advantage in Engg and CS. STAND UP, however, has started to pull away from UP Alyansa since 2018 while KAISA UP’s share collapsed (see sidebar 4).
STAND UP eventually swept all the university-wide races last year as they gained Engg and CS alongside four former yellow and blue strongholds. UP Alyansa only retained Eduk from their gains as STAND UP retook Stat.
Reaching out to the electorate will be a challenge for both parties as this year’s elections will be held again in a remote setup. The upcoming elections will determine whether STAND UP can sustain their victories from last year, or if UP Alyansa can prevent the red party from further making inroads.
However, one thing is certain: No vote is guaranteed. Aside from aiming to expand their parties’ voter base, it remains important for candidates to consolidate votes from their strongholds to win elections. ●
