Days away from the midterm elections on May 12, skirmishes between the Marcos and Duterte camps continue at home. But no matter the outcome, the specter of confrontation between the US and China in Philippine waters will still loom.

And so an elephant in the room remains: The US is intensifying preparations to challenge China in the West Philippine Sea, with the recent deployment of the US Army’s second missile system in the region as one sign of buildup. It is also accompanied by other allies, with Japan, Australia, and France among the countries poised to arm the archipelago.

So as the Global North turns Philippine fields into weapons depots, a conflagration threatens to engulf the region.

Why is the US Gearing to Confront China?

The US established itself as the world’s leading superpower through massive military buildup and credit lending in the wake of world wars that devastated Europe, in turn guiding the trajectory of such economies. In the past century, debt, economic adjustment, and overt military intervention have become key weapons in their arsenal, wrote economist Efe Gürcan in Monthly Review.

Slowly, China emerged as a rival to US hegemony: Decades of rural enterprise followed by rapid industrialization lifted nearly 800 million people above the international poverty line, according to the World Bank. In 2021, China accounted for 28% of the world’s manufacturing, with offshore production in Global South countries driving over P40 trillion in foreign revenues. P50 trillion in investment in the same countries occurred over the past decade under the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI).

Investment and intensive aid in developing countries such as Sri Lanka, Djibouti, and Cambodia bring them into China’s sphere of influence. Positioning itself as a leader of the Global South and mediator, the nation recently held joint military parades with Vietnam on the 50th anniversary of its reunification. Yet China continues seizing disputed territory, most recently Sandy Cay in the Spratly Islands.

In response to this growing hegemonic threat, the US had to shift away from its previous strategy, which sociologist Giovanni Arrighi said demanded Middle Eastern intervention at the opening of the 21st century. True enough, such an era of “forever wars” in the region is closing, as the Biden administration pulled troops out from Afghanistan in 2021 and Trump recently oversaw similar exits in Iraq and Syria.

Both leaders follow an approach formalized a decade earlier, when the Obama administration first declared a US pivot to Asia in 2011. The Trans-Pacific Partnership and the conduct of “freedom of navigation” missions by aircraft carrier groups in the West Philippine Sea formed initial steps to countering Beijing.

US President Donald Trump takes a more aggressive tack by imposing 145% tariffs on China, broadcasting moves to reshore American manufacturing. Aimed at reasserting American global dominance, such dreams have precedent: Biden incentivized US manufacturers through the CHIPS and Science Act in part to compete with a China whose steel production runs up to a trillion tons annually.

What is the Philippines’s Role in the US Pivot?

While the US pursues such moves to persuade countries to its influence, allies and elites aligned with its interests can still move autonomously, but only within limits, wrote Walden Bello for Focus on the Global South. So the Philippines, an American-allied vantage point geographically close to both China and warship-patrolled Taiwan, readies itself in case Beijing invades Taipei. The country is thus fast becoming a site of military and economic buildup by the Global North.

Aside from basing under the Enhanced Defense Cooperation Agreement, the US commitment to stations on Philippine soil continues as the Marines are back in Subic for the first time since their withdrawal in 1992. So do allies make inroads. After a trilateral summit with the US and Philippines last year, Japan joined 19 countries in Balikatan 2025 under a new Reciprocal Access Agreement. Negotiations are underway or completed for visiting forces pacts with France, New Zealand, and Canada, among others.

Economic alms follow political pressure. Trump’s tariffs exempt key Philippine exports from exports to memory chips, while Japan pours billions of pesos of official development assistance into infrastructure under Build Better More and extractive nickel mining in Palawan. In contrast, the Marcos Jr. administration dumped China’s BRI, while strict visa requirements now hinder the entry of Chinese business into the country.

These combined Western-backed counterweights to China put a target on the Philippines.

Why Oppose War With China?

War’s consequences could be explosive in a country recognized as the world’s largest rice importer. Supply chain disruptions worth over P150 trillion could spell starvation for already food-insecure Filipino families.

The “free and open Indo-Pacific” formula, applauded by the US and Japan, serves as pretext for pouring troops and tradables into the country. Supposedly, the aim is to defend the West Philippine Sea. But historically, examples such as the nuclear arms race prove the doctrine of deterrence by aggressive buildup a dud, only provoking Russia and China into similar bluster. Now, nine countries possess warheads, with Australia in the acquisition process for nuclear-powered submarines.

Neither armaments nor carrier group missions deter constant attacks on fisherfolk. Upholding the 2016 arbitral ruling denying China’s exclusive territorial claims, the Philippines must liaise with other Southeast Asian powers to diplomatically contest aggression, according to a 2022 paper by political scientist Edcel Ibarra. 

But some states, such as the Philippines, adopt postures of confrontation. So toiling sectors, whose lives and livelihoods would be the first casualties of war, must resist the brinkmanship of political and economic elites in Southeast Asia.

Basic sectors can still ward off a decisive conflagration. Beyond mass marches, strikes and work stoppages can dam the transport of war material, as carried out by European workers from Barcelona to Genoa in 2023 in opposition to genocide in Palestine. 

Across Southeast Asia, the task remains for workers, farmers, and ordinary people to oppose war augured by a Global North and allied domestic elites readying for battle against a contender for world hegemony. ●