The absence of the Nagkakaisang Iskolar para sa Pamantasan at Sambayanan (KAISA UP) in last year’s remote student council elections have likely benefited the Student Alliance for the Advancement of Democratic Rights in UP (STAND UP) more than UP Alyansa ng mga Mag-aaral para sa Panlipunang Katwiran at Kaunlaran (UP Alyansa), results of the 2021 polls showed. 

The recorded two-party swing between KAISA UP and STAND UP was nearly 27.6 percent while the swing between the yellow banner and UP Alyansa was only 19.6 percent. This meant that over a quarter of KAISA voters switched to STAND, while only less than one-fifth of the yellow voters went blue last year.

The swing was calculated using the Butler formula, an election metric mainly used in the United Kingdom parliamentary elections. The swing is the average change in the vote share of two parties from 2019 to 2021. In this case, the swings were KAISA to Alyansa (KAISA-Alyansa swing) and KAISA to STAND (KAISA-STAND swing). Only the votes garnered by the three parties’ standard bearers in the 2019 and 2021 elections, and abstain votes were considered. 

For instance, in the College of Engineering–which has the largest electorate–STAND UP’s 2021 vote share climbed by 13 percent while KAISA’s change was -46 percent. (Because KAISA did not enter the 2021 polls, its 2021 vote change is the negative of its 2019 vote share.) Hence, the KAISA-STAND swing in the college was nearly 29.5 percent. Moreover, the KAISA-Alyansa swing was around 24.6 percent.

 With KAISA’s absence, STAND was also able to garner more votes even in colleges where, historically, no party had an edge over others. The College of Science recorded a 25.5 percent swing to STAND compared to KAISA-Alyansa’s 15.4 percent swing. Likewise, in the School of Statistics, STAND UP benefited more in KAISA’s absence after recording a 24.3 percent swing while KAISA only got 13.5 percent (see sidebar 1). 

But interestingly, in at least two STAND UP bailiwicks, the College of Mass Communication (CMC) and the College of Social Work and Community Development (CSWCD), more KAISA voters have swung to UP Alyansa–but not by much. CMC recorded a KAISA-Alyansa swing of 17.6 percent while the KAISA-STAND 16.9 percent. In CSWCD, 7.8 percent was the KAISA-Alyansa swing while it was 6.8 for the yellow-to-red swing (see sidebar 2).

While the swings were largely expected–owing to STAND UP’s sweep of the last student council elections–the numbers do reveal that STAND UP’s 2021 campaign might have been more effective as it convinced a larger share of the now-alienated yellow voters to go red.

 KAISA stronghold Asian Institute of Tourism, for instance, heavily went to STAND UP last year as it recorded a KAISA-STAND swing of 36.5 percent. Similarly, the School of Economics recorded a yellow-to-red shift of 45.6 percent–the highest among all colleges. And even UP Alyansa strongholds showed that KAISA voters went to STAND more heavily than for the blue party (see sidebar 3).

Nonetheless, the calculation of the swing only reveals a fraction of how KAISA UP voters faced the 2021 elections given that the 2019 polls were a relatively high point for them–winning the chairperson (Sean Thakur) and the top councilor post (Jesus Reyna III). For one, the usefulness of swing is better in strong two-party races–a phenomenon that UP Diliman is just transitioning into. And this year’s polls will be an indication of such. ●