Armed with its pro-people agenda and strong sectoral presence, the Left opposition stands toe-to-toe with traditional elite giants vying to maintain political power in the 2025 elections. Yet the opposition’s path to an electoral win in the Senate is obstructed by a scattered voter base and the established campaign machinery of dynastic elites.

Such bids become more important as opposition presence continually diminishes. Only 28 minority seats stand against the 283 majority seats in the House of Representatives. While the Senate minority comprises Risa Hontiveros and Koko Pimentel, many laud Hontiveros as the sole opposition in the upper chamber.

These opposition forces are staunch administration critics of measures that strengthen the elite status quo, push for progressive policies, lead key legislative investigations, and champion the basic sectors of the country. Its declining presence in public posts may compromise the effectiveness of checks and balances on the administration.

The trudge toward victory, however, will prove to be laborious as only a few people identify as opposition, comprising only 8.7 percent of the nationally representative survey by WR Numero in September. On the other hand, a 23 percent administration-leaning populace poses a challenge for the Left. The remaining 68 percent are unsure or independent, presenting a chance for the opposition to influence their vote.

For a fractured UniTeam, President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. has released his Senate slate for the upcoming elections, composed of new aspirants from dynastic families, reelectionists, and former senators, most of whom appear in the winning circle of pre-election opinion polls. While there is no formal endorsement from Vice President Sara Duterte, members of the Duterte-led Partido Demokratiko Pilipino-Laban are also gunning for legislative seats.

Amid fissures in the ruling administration, a united Left opposition, driven by its combined voter base and grassroots campaigning, may sway voters into giving it a chance to secure Senate posts by providing a viable alternative to elite-driven politics.

Where is the Opposition Now?

While conventional ideas of the opposition revolve around merely opposing the ruling administration, this definition risks grouping traditional politicians together with the “genuine opposition,” which are the progressives that espouse stances that challenge the status quo, according to Carmel Abao, a political science professor at the Ateneo de Manila University.  

Traditional politicians that some tout as opposition due to falling out with the Marcos administration include the likes of Sara Duterte. Other Dutertes vying for posts include former President Rodrigo Duterte, set to run for Davao City’s mayoral elections. Despite their anti-Marcos rhetoric, they are from the same dynastic families that have enacted policies promoting the status quo of pro-elite thrust and anti-dissent regulations, including the Anti-Terrorism Act, pro-China foreign policy, and the Corporate Recovery and Tax Incentives for Enterprises law.

Instead, the genuine opposition is found in the marginalized sectors advocating for change, said Renato Reyes Jr., campaign manager of the Makabayan coalition. Among other prominent Left groups vying for a Senate seat, Makabayan is fielding 11 candidates coming from various sectors, while Partido Lakas ng Masa (PLM) is fielding two labor leaders.

Former senators Kiko Pangilinan and Bam Aquino are also running, both of whom are faring best in recent preelection surveys among all opposition bets, but still narrowly short of making it into the magic 12. Other candidates are farther, some not included at all. For one, Makabayan’s Senate bet former Bayan Muna Rep. Teodoro Casiño landed at the 24th rank of Tangere’s October Senatorial polls.

The tight competition in the Senate pushes some figures to contend in the House of Representatives party-list race instead, such as Akbayan Party-list first nominee Chel Diokno. Historically, sectoral groups such as Gabriela, ACT Teachers Party-list, and Kabataan Partylist fared consistently well in the lower chamber elections. They will run again in the midterm polls. 

The diversity of Left and center-left political parties results from ideological differences. This allows for a more pluralistic representation of sectors, but may also prove alliance-building difficult. But this does not mean that they are unable to work together.

In an interview with the Collegian, PLM’s Luke Espiritu expressed openness to working with other groups.  Reyes also said the Makabayan coalition is willing to cooperate on the basis of shared platforms. Even the Liberal Party announced its openness to working with coalitions like Makabayan. But in terms of alliance-building, there is currently no broad Left coalition designed to take on the 2025 midterm elections.

What Can We Learn From the Past Elections?

In 2007, the Genuine Opposition (GO) was formed to contest then-president Gloria Macapagal Arroyo’s TEAM Unity slate. It defeated the former president’s slate by winning seven seats. Granted, the GO was not composed of sectoral leaders and Arroyo’s administration was no longer as popular among the populace compared to the current one. Still, analysts say that there are lessons that the opposition can glean, such as how a well-coordinated and consolidated campaign can rival the well-oiled machination of an incumbent administration. 

More recently, last 2019 elections saw the One Labor Win Alliance, a coalition of union-activists running for Senate seats to contend against the Duterte administration's bets. In their attempt at consolidating a “labor vote,” they have gained support from the labor sector as well as the youth, but they may have missed out on advertising to other sectors. The alliance was also distinct from the Liberal Party-led Otso Diretso slate.

“If the progressive movement and their allies had mobilized earlier and entered programmatic alliances with like-minded sectors, they could have won more votes,” said Ela Atienza, a political science professor at UP Diliman. “Start building on the grassroots. You need to make lofty progressive ideals matter and connect to the day-to-day struggles of people.” 

Championing the labor sector’s grassroots campaigns, the short-lived coalition helped foster better relations between the parties and helped establish the labor presence in electoral and sectoral affairs. This coordination is one of the Left’s strengths. The primary resource of a Left opposition is the appeal it brings to the masses—the image of an alternative to the status quo, according to Espiritu.

“Ang meron tayo ay human resource. Ang human resource natin ay mass movement, we have dedicated campaigners,”  Reyes said.

Emblematic of this is the “pink tide” of Leni Robredo’s 2022 campaign that sprung grassroots movements and inspired hundreds of thousands to mobilize. The campaign may not have resulted in Robredo’s victory, but considering that it started way later compared to the Marcoses’ decades-long campaign combined with the Dutertes’ dynastic machinery, its feats offer lessons on the successes that a bottom-up volunteer-mobilized movement can generate. 

A sustained grassroots journey, after all, also underpinned Hontiveros’s journey to a Senate seat. Originally an Akbayan representative in the lower chamber, she joined the Senatorial race in 2010 and 2013. She lost in both instances. Her loss in her second attempt, though already part of the administration slate, was said to be due to mixed messaging during her campaign that failed to adequately project the strong, fighter appearance she was trying to get across. 

The tides changed in her third attempt. Her victory in 2016 was attributed to a cogent campaign of platforms that resonated closely with voters, which are universal health care and anti-corruption. By staying faithful to progressive legislation, she was reelected in 2022, the only opposition bet to make it in the winning circle.

The past polls, thus, show that an opposition victory is possible, so long as certain unities are forged, the right branding is projected, programmatic platforms are advanced, and a sustained mobilization from the grassroots is launched.

How Can the Left Win Now?

Yet the opposition now struggles to present itself as a viable option to the masses, according to Espiritu. Even if they yearn for an alternative, the fragmented character and lack of visibility that undermine its “winnability” may push voters to opt for the same names with higher chances of winning, he added.

As it stands now, Left groups are “moving on their own,” according to Atienza. While they may not share the same slates, they can still coordinate along progressive policy lines. In doing so, they may coordinate their campaigns, broaden their influence, and prove their viability.

For example, in France, a coalition of various Left parties, the New Popular Front, won majority seats in their elections. While ideologically distant, they share some baseline progressive values and ideals. The alliance was a reaction by the Left to counter the forecast of a right-wing government, proving that the presence of a coordinated Left image may convince an electoral body that genuine alternatives exist.

Meanwhile, there is an anti-incumbency trend in some Latin American countries, like Argentina, Ecuador, and Guatemala. The mismanagement of incumbent politicians during the COVID pandemic, including mishandling public funds, and lowered public opinion of conservative candidates worked to the benefit of its Left opposition. By magnifying the problematic aspects of the administration, people may be convinced to look in the other direction: the opposition.

“Maraming tao ang frustrated and naghahanap ng something new. An alternative, something different. Let's try to attack that kind of frustration that we have with the way things have been run. And let's give them hope. Let's give them something to fight for, something to look forward [to],” Reyes said.

Despite different global contexts, there are parallels between France, Latin America, and the Philippines, such as the plummeting approval ratings for government heads and an inflation-struck populace. These situations may serve as the bedrock for strategic campaigns, points of unities on programs, and alliances that different groups can rally under.

Inflation, in fact, was the second most urgent concern that Filipinos said must be addressed, trailing after the issue of wage increase, a 2024 Pulse Asia survey showed. Progressive economic measures that concretely address these concerns must thus be at the forefront of campaigns. Yet beyond merely having these platforms, how they carry them is just as crucial. 

Traditional politicians like the Tulfos, for example, have been consistently topping the Senate polls because of what some experts say is their embodiment of “penal populism,” where they employ personalistic anti-establishment rhetoric and Tulfo-style quick justice that directly speak to the masses frustrated with the slow process of change. A more confrontational and strong-willed branding from the Left may thus appeal to the electorate. Projecting this requires addressing the problem of visibility.

Strategically appealing to targeted demographics may be productive in that regard. Both Espiritu and Abao are convinced that mobilizing the youth is essential as they constituted the majority of the registered voting population in the last elections. To do so, they may mobilize volunteer groups in educational institutions, utilize short-form content in media campaigns, and have a strong focus on the youth’s concerns, such as healthcare, education, and climate change.

Yet Reyes, Espiritu, Abao, and Atienza all believe that the most optimal chances for success involve movements that go far beyond one electoral cycle.

What Should Long-Term Changes Look Like?

The Left, instead of solely battling in the traditional arenas of politics, must take up grassroots initiatives to seed opposition presence for future elections and strengthen democratic participation that will generate victories on several levels. This can mean seizing local positions first in public office.

“You can actually start training young progressive people to start running for the SK as a counterbalance to the children of traditional politicians,” said Atienza. Although mayoral positions are more prominent, even making a dent in Sangguniang Kabataan (SK) elections can be beneficial for training future opposition leaders.

Apart from SK, political dynasties in local posts can still be toppled, such as Dinagat Islands’ former Rep. Arlene Bag-ao who won against the Ecleos dynasty in 2013, through the Bag’ao’s years-long grassroots initiatives. Makabayan and Akbayan are also pushing for local posts in the 2025 polls, which can strengthen opposition influence, providing pressure to push for systemic changes in the electoral terrain.

The current electoral system presents recurring challenges—high cost of running for office, non-programmatic parties and coalitions, and a flawed party-list system hijacked by dynasties. The government’s red-tagging campaign has also made the population fear sectoral leaders. Without remedying these problems, the same challenges will confront the Left in every election.

Offering free or discounted channels dedicated to dispensing campaign advertisements digitally or physically to legitimate sectoral candidates in government can level the electoral playing field. In the lower chamber, party-list representatives must have concrete and regulated connections with the sectoral groups they wish to represent.

Yet truly severing the monopolization of power by a few families requires the passage of an anti-dynastic bill. House Bill 1157, which seeks to prohibit a relative of an incumbent from running for office, was filed by Kabataan Party-list in 2022 yet remains pending at the committee level.

In the journey of seizing political power for the Left, it may start small—reinforcing grassroots movements that will enable it to seize seats and recalibrate the electoral system itself. The opposition must prove once again that it, too, is a political giant, whose strong image may be enough to convince an oppressed citizenry that a viable and genuine alternative exists. ●